2006 WSOP PREVIEW: THE $10 MILLION MAN (OR WOMAN)

With the fields being tremendously large, the best players in the world are going to have a tough task ahead of them in August. They have to survive against 8,000 other sharks, fish, donkeys, and luckboxes. And if that wasn’t hard enough, they will have to be mentally prepared to play the best poker of their lives for almost two straight weeks.

There’s a huge difference in skill level between the amateur players who satellited their way in versus world class pros. But in gigantic fields where anybody can win, pros are at a disadvantage. So which pro has the best chance of stepping up to win?

Former WSOP Champions

No player has won back-to-back Championships since Johnny Chan did it in 1988. Greg Raymer made an impressive run last year finishing in 25th place. And if “Fossilman” didn’t run into a bad beat, he could have easily made the final table. Even Raymer doubts that he could replicate another rush like he found himself in during the last two WSOPs.

Can Joe Hachem repeat this year? Since he won the 2005 WSOP, he’s only played in a handful of big tournaments. He made the final table of a WSOP Circuit event at Paris/Bally’s and also made the final TV table on the European Poker Tour. Hachem earned less than $100,000 in tournament winnings since he became World Champion and has a lot of work ahead of him if he expects to repeat.

You can’t count out Johnny Chan and Doyle Brunson in any tournament. They both won their 10th WSOP bracelets last year in different events, and proved that they are still at the top of the tournament game.

Former champions like Dan Harrington, Carlos Mortensen, Tom McEvoy, and Huck Seed are dangerous in any tournament that they enter. I wouldn’t want to find any of those guys at my starting table. Scotty Nguyen won his first WPT event in Tunica earlier this year. He’s looking to add another bracelet to his gaudy collection of jewelry.

According to the oddsmakers at BetUSA.com, former champions Phil Hellmuth and Chris “Jesus” Ferguson are at the top of the favorites list. Last month, Ferguson took second place at the 2006 Heads-Up Championship for a second year in a row. He also won a WSOP Circuit event last September at Harrah’s in Las Vegas. Out of all the former champions, Ferguson probably has the best chance of winning this year’s event.

Other Notable Professionals

T.J. Cloutier is considered the best tournament player never to win the WSOP championship. He’s taken second place twice. Can he break that jinx this year? At the 2005 WSOP, he won his sixth bracelet. He’s always a favorite.

Phil Ivey went deep in last year’s WSOP main event a few weeks after he won his fifth bracelet in the Pot-Limit Omaha event. BetUSA.com has Ivey as the clear cut favorite at 150 to 1.

Daniel Negreanu had a horrible 2005 WSOP. He’s hoping for a better performance this year. Michael “The Grinder” Mizrachi has been on fire. He won the WPT Borgata Winter Open this year. The Grinder almost won another WPT event in Tunica when Scotty Nguyen busted him with a bad beat. Last year The Grinder tied for most number of cashes at the WSOP with seven.

Howard Lederer and Layne Flack are listed at the top of the oddsmakers list. Both can do some serious damage if they get a big stack early. Other pros you should keep an eye on include: Gavin Smith, John Juanda, Erik Seidel, Mike Matusow, 2006 Heads-Up Champion Ted Forrest, and David Singer.

Online Players

Joe Bartholdi plays both online and in Las Vegas. The former member of Dutch Boyd’s “Crew” is a twenty-something pro that won the 2006 WPT Championship at the Bellagio last month and took home a record first place prize of $3.7 million.

Peter “Nordberg” Feldman recently won the WSOP Circuit event in New Orleans. He also bubbled out of the final table of the WPT Borgata Winter Open.

Cliff “Johnny Bax” Josephy became one of my favorite stories at last year’s WSOP. He had never played Seven-card Stud before he entered the $1,500 WSOP event. He got a quick tutorial five minute before and went onto to win his first bracelet. Also known to the world as Johnny Bax (his online screen name), Josephy is considered one of the best internet players to find recent success in live tournaments. He finished in 12th place at the WPT Championships.

Eric “Rizen” Lynch quit his job as a software engineer to focus on poker full time. He recently won the $1 Million Guaranteed Sunday tournament on Poker Stars for a cool $156K. He might be one of the best NL tournament players you never heard of.

European Pros

Marcel Luske (Holland) is one of the best European players of all time. He’s on the list of European favorites to win this year. Andy Black (Ireland) made the final table last year after an impressive run. Patrik Antonius (Finland) is considered one of the best young players from Europe. The former model is the reigning Scandinavian Poker Champion. He also won an event on the EPT and took second in a WPT event.

Other notable European pros to watch out for at the 2006 WSOP include Carlos Mortensen (Spain), Gus Hansen (Denmark), Martin de Knijff (Sweden), Devilfish Ulliot (England), Ram Vaswani (England), Gentleman John Gale (England), and Daniel Larrson (Sweden).

Female Pros

Kathy Leibert is my pick to be the first female to win the WSOP. She’s been playing almost every major NL tournament this past year, unlike Annie Duke. Liebert took third in a WSOP Circuit event in San Diego earlier this year. You always have to consider Jen Harman, who currently ranks third on the all time Female Money List.

At the 2005 WSOP, American-born, yet London-based attorney Tiffany Williamson lasted the longest out of any other female in the main event. I doubt that Williamson can make another run like she did last year. Cyndy Violette had an impressive 2005 WSOP with a couple of final table appearances. She nearly won her second bracelet but lost heads-up to Erik Seidel. Liz Lieu, Joanne Liu, and Carmel Petresco have all gained a lot of experience over the past year and have an outside chance of winning, along with Isabelle Mercier, Barbara Enright, and Mimi Tran.

Celebrity Poker Players

Pros love playing against celebrities because for the most part, they are dead money. On the first hand of the 2005 WSOP Day 1B, actor Oliver Hudson (son to Goldie Hawn and brother to Kate Hudson) busted out when his boat lost to Sammy Farha’s bigger boat. However, there are instances when your favorite celebrity hits a rush at the poker tables.

Two years ago, actor Ben Affleck won the California State Championships after some excellent coaching from Annie Duke. Last year, actor and poker announcer Gabe Kaplan made a final table at the World Poker Tour Mirage Showdown. “Mr. Kotter” also made a final table at the 2005 WSOP. The media-unfriendly Tobey Maguire cashed in one WSOP event last year. Then after the WSOP ended, “Spiderman” had an impressive run at the Bellagio Cup Challenge where he made the final table. Actor and writer Wil Wheaton won the celebrity last longer at the WPT Invitational at Commerce and won $10,000 for his charity City of Hope when he finished in 23rd place.

Then who could forget about Jen Tilly’s captivating performance at last year’s WSOP Ladies NL event? The Unabomber must have given his girlfriend some amazing tips. After she won her bracelet against the largest field of women ever to play in that event, Tilly admitted, “This is better than winning an Oscar!”

The odds that a pro will win are extremely slim, so celebrities pretty much have no chance. That won’t stop them from playing in this year’s 2006 WSOP. However, if I had to pick one celebrity that had a shot of winning, it would be James Woods. The actor almost cashed at the 2006 WPT Championship and demonstrated a gutsy and impressive performance when he finished in 24th place in the L.A. Poker Classic at Commerce Casino.

So, will a pro or an unknown win?

My guess will be that someone we never heard of before will win. The odds are stacked against the pros. The majority of the 8,000 players in this year’s event are going to be unknown amateurs. There might be a couple of thousand legit semi-pros and grinders out there, but the majority of the field is going to be dead money. Buying into this year’s WSOP is like stepping onto Omaha Beach on D-Day. Probability and statistics say that you won’t survive the initial onslaught. And that’s why the WSOP is so popular… because anyone can win. Just ask Robert Varknoyi.

An extremely lucky poker player is going to walk away from the Rio $10,000,000 richer. You are going to have tune in here to find out.